Earthquakes - - CA Public Resources

Section § 2800

This section explains that California is at high risk of major earthquakes and that a reliable short-term prediction system could significantly reduce the potential loss of life and property. Currently, there is scientific interest in identifying warning signs—like geochemical or geophysical changes—that might indicate an earthquake is imminent.

California has a chance to join the U.S. Geological Survey in researching the Parkfield section of the San Andreas Fault, which has historically experienced recurring earthquakes. This study could help identify earthquake precursors. State participation would enhance the study and share its findings, helping to potentially develop a reliable earthquake prediction system and response plan.

The Legislature finds and declares all of the following:

(a) The state’s major metropolitan areas are subject to potentially devastating large magnitude earthquakes and earth scientists estimate that there is a high probability that one or more large earthquakes will occur in California between now and the end of the century.

(b) Loss of life and property damage resulting from a damaging earthquake could be substantially reduced if there existed a reliable short-term earthquake prediction system capable of providing public warning of the size and location of a damaging earthquake within a timeframe of a few weeks to a few hours.

(c) While earth scientists are not in full agreement about the feasibility of short-term earthquake prediction, there is increasing interest in the possibility that precursory geochemical and geophysical phenomena can be identified within short timeframes and that these precursory events can become the basis for timely and reliable warnings of damaging earthquakes.

(d) California currently has a unique opportunity to assess the feasibility of short-term earthquake prediction by joining the United States Geological Survey in a study of the Parkfield section of the San Andreas fault in Monterey County. This section has, between 1857 and 1966, produced almost identical earthquakes of about 5.6 magnitude on the average of every 22 years. Another earthquake probably will occur in January of 1988, plus or minus four years. If adequate instrumentation is in place by the time the earthquake occurs, it may be possible to identify specific precursory phenomena. However, at present, the instrumentation is not considered adequate to fully monitor precursory events and, because of anticipated federal budget cuts, additional instrumentation is unlikely to be installed unless the state is able to participate in the Parkfield study. State participation would also allow the United States Geological Survey to share its data from Parkfield and permit the state to independently analyze and evaluate this data specifically for earthquake prediction and response purposes.

(e) If precursory earthquake phenomena are identified as a result of the Parkfield study, there is a need to assess the feasibility of establishing a statewide earthquake prediction system and to develop a short-term response plan which, among other things, would include development of procedures for verifying the predicted event and guidelines for taking state action in response to anomalous precursory phenomena.

earthquake prediction short-term earthquake warning Parkfield study San Andreas Fault geochemical phenomena geophysical phenomena earthquake precursors earthquake response plan metropolitan earthquake risk earthquake research collaboration earthquake preparedness state participation in research instrumentation for earthquake study California earthquake risk U.S. Geological Survey partnership

(Added by Stats. 1985, Ch. 1198, Sec. 1. Effective September 29, 1985.)

Section § 2801

This law section defines terms related to earthquake predictions. It categorizes predictions into three types based on their timing: long-term (a few years to decades), intermediate-term (a few weeks to years), and short-term (a few hours to weeks). It also describes the 'Parkfield prototype earthquake prediction system,' which is a set of instruments monitoring the San Andreas fault for short-term predictions. Finally, it defines a 'Parkfield characteristic earthquake' as one with a magnitude between 5.5 and 6.0 occurring within a specific area along the fault near Parkfield.

As used in this chapter:

(a) “Long-term prediction” means a prediction of an earthquake that is expected to occur within a few years up to a few decades.

(b) “Intermediate-term prediction” means a prediction of an earthquake that is expected to occur within a period of a few weeks to a few years.

(c) “Short-term prediction” means a prediction of an earthquake that is expected to occur within a few hours to a few weeks.

(d) “Parkfield prototype earthquake prediction system” means a dense cluster of instruments along the Parkfield section of the San Andreas fault which monitors earthquake activity, local distortion of the Earth’s crust, strain levels, creep adjustments along the fault, and other phenomena which may be useful in making a short-term earthquake prediction.

(e) “Parkfield characteristic earthquake” means an earthquake that has, among other qualities, a magnitude between 5.5 and 6.0 on the Richter scale, and occurs on a location somewhere along the 15-mile section of the San Andreas fault that is centered in the City of Parkfield.

earthquake prediction long-term prediction intermediate-term prediction short-term prediction Parkfield prototype San Andreas fault earthquake monitoring crust distortion strain levels creep adjustments Richter scale Parkfield characteristic earthquake earthquake magnitude seismic activity tracking Parkfield seismic area

(Added by Stats. 1985, Ch. 1198, Sec. 1. Effective September 29, 1985.)

Section § 2802

The law mandates the development of a prototype earthquake prediction system near the City of Parkfield, focusing on the central San Andreas fault. This system, created with the United States Geological Survey, uses numerous instruments to monitor signs of possible earthquakes and aims to detect them with enough certainty for short-term predictions. The department is responsible for ensuring efforts are not duplicated and must work with USGS to complete the Parkfield network. They must enhance instruments for early detection, manage a remote data review station in Sacramento, and inform various agencies about any findings. A progress report on this project is required annually, starting January 1, 1987, with the project potentially ending on January 1, 1992, unless extended by new legislation.

(a) The department shall develop jointly with the United States Geological Survey a prototype earthquake prediction system along the central San Andreas fault near the City of Parkfield.

(b) The system shall include a dense cluster of seismic and crustal deformation instrumentation capable of monitoring geophysical and geochemical phenomena associated with earthquakes in the region. These data shall be analyzed continuously to determine if precursory anomalies can be identified with sufficient certainty to make a short-term prediction. The department shall not duplicate any of the ongoing efforts of the United States Geological Survey or any public or private college or university in the development of this system.

(c) In meeting its obligations under this chapter, the department shall develop, in cooperation with the United States Geological Survey, a plan for completion of the Parkfield instrumentation network. The plan shall provide for all of the following:

(1) Augmentation of monitoring instruments with the goal of detecting precursors of the Parkfield characteristic earthquake.

(2) Operation by the department of a remote data review station in Sacramento which will provide state scientists with data from the Parkfield prototype earthquake prediction system and other data, as required, to advise the Office of Emergency Services of the occurrence of precursors and verification of the predicted event.

(3) Advising the United States Geological Survey, the Office of Emergency Services, the Seismic Safety Commission, and the California Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council, regarding the department’s review of Parkfield data.

(d) On January 1, 1987, the department shall issue a progress report to the Governor, the Legislature, and the Seismic Safety Commission. An annual progress report shall be made each year thereafter. The project shall terminate on January 1, 1992, unless extended by statute.

earthquake prediction San Andreas fault Parkfield seismic instrumentation crustal deformation geophysical phenomena geochemical phenomena precursory anomalies short-term prediction data analysis United States Geological Survey Office of Emergency Services Seismic Safety Commission California Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council remote data review station

(Amended by Stats. 2013, Ch. 352, Sec. 474. (AB 1317) Effective September 26, 2013. Operative July 1, 2013, by Sec. 543 of Ch. 352.)

Section § 2803

This law requires the Office of Emergency Services to create a detailed emergency response plan specifically for short-term earthquake predictions. This plan should include peer review methods to assess prediction accuracy, quick government response procedures, strategies for reducing risks to vulnerable populations, a public warning system, and approaches for handling false alarms or prediction failures. The Office of Emergency Services will collaborate with several agencies to develop this plan.

(a) Concurrently with the development of the Parkfield prototype earthquake prediction system, the Office of Emergency Services, in consultation with the California Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council, shall develop a comprehensive emergency response plan for short-term earthquake predictions. The plan shall include all of the following:

(1) A method of peer review involving the California Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council to evaluate the validity of short-term earthquake predictions and to develop guidelines for initiating state action in response to anomalous geochemical and geophysical phenomena.

(2) A means of rapidly activating governmental response to a predicted event.

(3) Plans for mitigating earthquake losses to vulnerable populations, including, but not limited to, drawdown of impoundment levels behind dams, positioning of emergency equipment in safe areas, and mobilization of firefighting, law enforcement, rescue, and medical personnel.

(4) A public warning system.

(5) Strategies for dealing with earthquake predictions that fail to occur (false alarms) and the failure of an earthquake prediction system to forecast a damaging event.

(b) The Office of Emergency Services shall consult with the department, the Seismic Safety Commission, the United States Geological Survey, and the Federal Emergency Management Agency in the development of the plan.

earthquake emergency response short-term prediction peer review California Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council governmental response vulnerable populations mitigation plans public warning system false alarm strategies prediction failures impoundment levels emergency equipment positioning firefighting mobilization Seismic Safety Commission United States Geological Survey

(Amended by Stats. 2013, Ch. 352, Sec. 475. (AB 1317) Effective September 26, 2013. Operative July 1, 2013, by Sec. 543 of Ch. 352.)

Section § 2804

This law allows the department and the Seismic Safety Commission to ask for and accept gifts and grants from both public and private organizations to help cover the state's share of expenses related to seismic safety.

The department and the Seismic Safety Commission may solicit and receive gifts and grants from other public and private agencies for the state’s share of costs under this chapter.

Seismic Safety Commission public agency grants private agency grants state funding seismic safety costs state's share gifts and grants funding solicitation financial assistance earthquake safety funding

(Added by Stats. 1985, Ch. 1198, Sec. 1. Effective September 29, 1985.)